Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
